Risk assessment in tourism system using a fuzzy set and dominance-based rough set

Technological and Economic Development of Economy

Nerija Banaitienė¹  Audrius Banaitis¹  Ali Hosseini²  Hassanali Faraji Sabokbar³  Raziyeh Ayashi⁴  Athareh Ayashi⁵ 

[1] Department of Construction Economics and Property Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Saulėtekio al. 11, 10223 Vilnius, Lithuania;Department of Geography and Urban Planning, University of Tehran, Tehran 1417854151, Iran;Department of Human Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran 1417854151, Iran;Department of Tourism Planning, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran;Department of Tourism Planning, University of Tehran, Tehran 1417854151, Iran;

关键词: tourism risk;    risk assessment;    dominance-based rough set approach (DRSA);    Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS);    fuzzy set theory;   

DOI  :  10.3846/20294913.2016.1198840

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The purpose of this study is to identify risks, discover rule base structure and the impact of risks by knowledge base system design in one of the Iran tourism destination. Based on tourism system approach, the factors of risks are divided in two dimensions: internal risks and external risks and seven criteria: political, economic, cultural-social, technological, environmental-health, functional and safe-security. Data were analyzed by fuzzy inference system and Dominance-based Rough Set Approach (DRSA) synthesizing to construction of forecasting risk assessment system. Tourists’ perspectives towards the possibilities of risks were first assessed within seven risk factors and converted into a systematic structure within the structure of rough sets. Designing of a fuzzy expert system was dealt with using the created knowledge database. Then, the system’s sensitivity analysis was examined. The results indicate that the system can be a good way to estimate the risks and their fluctuation rates and impacts on the development of tourism destinations. The technological, social, functional and safety-security risks had the highest values in the system designed for minimum travel repeatability. The research suggests that it is important impact of risks and their interaction with each other on the future development of tourism destination.

【 授权许可】

Unknown