Evaluation of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) Performance in Simulating Seasonal Precipitation over Mountainous Central Pindus (Greece)

Water

Dimitrios Stathis¹  Stefanos Stefanidis¹  Stavros Dafis² 

[1] Faculty of Forestry and Natural Environment, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Laboratory of Mountainous Water Management and Control, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece;National Observatory of Athens, Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, I. Metaxa &Vas. Pavlou, P. Penteli (Lofos Koufou), 15236 Athens, Greece;

关键词: precipitation;    climate change;    RCMs;    mountainous area;   

DOI  :  10.3390/w12102750

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

During the last few years, there is a growing concern about climate change and its negative effects on water availability. This study aims to evaluate the performance of regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating seasonal precipitation over the mountainous range of Central Pindus (Greece). To this end, observed precipitation data from ground-based rain gauge stations were compared with RCMs grid point’s simulations for the baseline period 1974–2000. Statistical indexes such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Pearson correlation coefficient, and standard deviation (SD) were used in order to evaluate the model’s performance. The results demonstrated that RCMs fail to represent the temporal variability of precipitation time series with exception of REMO. Although, concerning the model’s prediction accuracy, it was found that better performance was achieved by the RegCM3 model in the study area. In addition, regarding a future projection (2074–2100), it was highlighted that precipitation will significantly decrease by the end of the 21st century, especially in spring (−30%). Therefore, adaption of mountainous catchment management to climate change is crucial to avoid water scarcity.

【 授权许可】

Unknown