Long-term deep decarbonisation pathways for Ecuador: Insights from an integrated assessment model

Energy Strategy Reviews

Alexandre Szklo¹  Rafael Soria²  Pedro Rochedo³  Daniel Villamar³  Pablo Carvajal⁴  Roberto Schaeffer⁴  Mariana Imperio⁴ 

[1] Corresponding author.;University of Perpignan - Domitian, 52 Avenue Paul Alduy, 66860, Perpignan, France;Departamento de Ingeniería Mecánica, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Ladrón de Guevara E11-253, 17-01-2759, Quito, Ecuador;Energy Planning Program, Graduate School of Engineering, Universidade Federal Do Rio de Janeiro, Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco C, Sala 211, Cidade Universitaria, Ilha Do Fundão, 21941-972, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil;

关键词: Integrated assessment model (IAM);    Deep decarbonisation;    Net-zero emissions;    Energy planning;    Ecuador;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

This work presents an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) developed for Ecuador, the so-called Ecuador Land Use and Energy Network Analysis model (ELENA). This model includes six distinctive sectors of the economy and displays the four geographic regions composing the country. The model enables to capture sectorial interactions, under a set of scenarios designed to evaluate the energy and land perspectives until 2050. The model is a crucial planning instrument to evaluate public policies, such as National Determined Contributions (NDC) and even more ambitious decarbonisation scenarios. Findings show that Ecuador's NDC are not aligned with the “well below” 2 °C target, committed in the Paris Agreement. Moreover, to achieve deep decarbonisation it is necessary to endorse disruptive strategies in which bioenergy and reforestation play a main role. To keep under the 1.5 °C temperature threshold above pre-industrial levels, Ecuador's energy matrix must be diversified with higher shares of low carbon technologies and electrification of energy end use in the transport, buildings and industry sectors. Biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and biofuels could transform the energy sector in a CO2 sink.

【 授权许可】

Unknown