Short and Long-Run Causal Effects of CO2 Emissions, Energy Use, GDP and Population Growth: Evidence from India Using the ARDL and VECM Approaches

Energies

Prabha Thoudam¹  Md Shabbir Alam²  Yasmeen Ansari³  Kuppusamy Alagirisamy⁴  Palanisamy Manigandan⁴  Duraisamy Pachiyappan⁴ 

[1] Department of Business and Information, College of Business, University of Buraimi, Al Buraimi 890, Oman;Department of Economics & Finance, College of Business Administration, University of Bahrain, Sakhir 32038, Bahrain;Department of Finance, College of Administrative and Financial Sciences, Saudi Electronic University, Jeddah 24212, Saudi Arabia;Department of Statistics, Periyar University, Salem 636011, Tamil Nadu, India;

关键词: CO₂ emissions;    energy use;    GDP;    variance decomposition;    population growth;    ARDL bound test;   

DOI  :  10.3390/en14248333

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

This paper investigates the nexus between CO₂ emissions (CO₂E), GDP, energy use (ENU), and population growth (PG) in India from 1980–2018 by comparing the “vector error correction” model (VECM) and “auto regressive distributed lag” (ARDL). We applied the unit root test, Johansen multi-variate cointegration, and performed a Variance decomposition analysis using the Cholesky approach. The VECM and ARDL-bound testing approaches to cointegration suggest a long-term equilibrium nexus between GDP, energy use, population growth and CO₂E. The empirical outcomes show the existence of a long-term equilibrium nexus between the variables. The Granger causality results show that short-term bi-directional causality exists between GDP and ENU, while a uni-directional causality between CO₂E and GDP, CO₂E and ENU, CO₂E and PG, and PG and ENU. Evidence from variance decomposition indicates that 58.4% of the future fluctuations in CO₂E are due to changes in ENU, 2.8% of the future fluctuations are due to changes in GDP, and 0.43% of the future fluctuations are due to changes in PG. Finally, the ARDL test results indicate that a 1% increase in PG will lead to a 1.4% increase in CO₂E. Our paper addresses some important policy implications.

【 授权许可】

Unknown