Investment Dynamics and Endogenous Growth Potential of Russian Regions

Prostranstvennaâ Èkonomika

Artyom Gennadyevich Isaev¹ 

[1] Economic Research Institute FEB RAS;

关键词: regional growth;    investment;    expected demand;    flexible accelerator;    Russia;   

DOI  :  10.14530/se.2019.1.018-038

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

One of the main issues of the regional economic and investment policy of the Russian Federation is the search of endogenous growth sources of its regions. The well-known regional models do not consider this aspect, assuming external demand as the main source of regional growth. The dynamic properties of the regional economic system remain beyond these models. In this article the dynamic investment function based on a flexible accelerator model is estimated for regions of the Russian Federation grouped into 30 macro-regions. The function revealed empirically whether the regions have endogenous growth mechanisms that are reflected in the presence of feedbacks and lag responses. For each of the 30 macro-regions four variants of the function were evaluated, differing in the interpretation of the expected demand. First, options were considered when investment dynamics is determined by changes in demand inside and outside of the region. Second, each of the options is represented as a statistically observable and unobservable variable. Estimates show that for most regions parameter estimates are within expected ranges of values, and the investment dynamics follow a flexible accelerator model. For the regions with statistically significant estimates the values of accelerator and the speed of adjustment parameter were calculated. Accelerator values are higher, and the adjustment parameter is lower for the northern and eastern regions, compared with the regions of the western and central part of the country. This indicates that the latter are closer to their dynamic equilibrium, when investments annually cover most of the gap between actual and desired levels of capital. However, regional patterns of endogenous growth could not be identified on the basis of the estimates obtained. There was no statistical confirmation of the assumption that the endogeneity of regional development depends on the degree of diversification of regional economic structure. Thus, investment processes in regions with similar industrial specialization and comparable per capita incomes do not always follow the flexible accelerator model. This may indicate the presence of other sources of growth, which can be more adequately described by traditional regional models, and this must be taken into account when implementing regional investment policy. Based on a comparison of estimates with regional indicators characterizing the ratio of base and non-base industries (using regional export base model terminology), it is assumed that endogenous growth mechanisms exist in regions where base industries dominate, but not in all regions where intraregional demand prevails over external one. For a more accurate identification of regional patterns of endogenous growth a more accurate specification of intraregional demand is needed

【 授权许可】

Unknown