Hazard Footprint-Based Normalization of Economic Losses from Tropical Cyclones in China During 1983–2015

International Journal of Disaster Risk Science

Shao Sun¹  Gregor C. Leckebusch²  Yi Lu³  Yihong Duan⁴  Wenfang Chen⁴ 

[1] National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration;School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham;Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science;

关键词: China;    Direct economic loss;    Loss normalization;    Tropical cyclones;    Typhoon disaster risk;   

DOI  :  10.1007/s13753-018-0172-y

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Abstract Loss normalization is the prerequisite for understanding the effects of socioeconomic development, vulnerability, and climate changes on the economic losses from tropical cyclones. In China, limited studies have been done on loss normalization methods of damages caused by tropical cyclones, and most of them have adopted an administrative division-based approach to define the exposure levels. In this study, a hazard footprint-based normalization method was proposed to improve the spatial resolution of affected areas and the associated exposures to influential tropical cyclones in China. The meteorological records of precipitation and near-surface wind speed were used to identify the hazard footprint of each influential tropical cyclone. Provincial-level and national-level (total) economic loss normalization (PLN and TLN) were carried out based on the respective hazard footprints, covering loss records between 1999–2015 and 1983–2015, respectively. Socioeconomic factors—inflation, population, and wealth (GDP per capita)—were used to normalize the losses. A significant increasing trend was found in inflation-adjusted losses during 1983–2015, while no significant trend was found after normalization with the TLN method. The proposed hazard footprint-based method contributes to a more realistic estimation of the population and wealth affected by the influential tropical cyclones for the original year and the present scenario.

【 授权许可】

Unknown