COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil: Where are we at?

International Journal of Infectious Diseases

Augusto César Cardoso-dos-Santos¹  Andréa de Paula Lobo²  João Matheus Bremm³  Marli Souza Rocha⁴  Giovanny Vinícius Araújo de França⁴  Eduardo Marques Macário⁴  Wanderson Kleber de Oliveira⁴  Rejane Sobrino Pinheiro⁴ 

[1] Corresponding author. Collective Health Program, Faculty of Health Science, University of Brasília, Brasília-DF, Brazil, 70910-900. Tel.: [phone].;Collective Health Program, Faculty of Health Science, University of Brasília, Brasília-DF, Brazil;Institute of Public Health Studies, Health Science Center, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro-RJ, Brazil;Secretariat of Health Surveillance, Ministry of Health, Brasília-DF, Brazil;

关键词: COVID-19;    Times series;    Epidemiology;    Brazil;    Joinpoint;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Objetive: To analyze the trends of COVID-19 in Brazil in 2020 by Federal Units (FU). Method: Ecological time-series based on cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 from March 11 to May 12. Joinpoint regression models were applied to identify points of inflection in COVID-19 trends, considering the days since the 50th confirmed case as time unit. Results: Brazil reached its 50th confirmed case of COVID-19 in 11 March 2020 and, 63 days after that, on May 12, 177,589 cases had been confirmed. The trends for all regions and FU are upward. In the last segment, from the 31st to the 63rd day, Brazil presented a daily percentage change (DPC) of 7.3% (95%CI= 7.2;7.5). For the country the average daily percentage change (ADPC) was 14.2% (95%CI: 13.8;14.5). The highest ADPC values were found in the North, Northeast and Southeast regions. Conclusions: In summary, our results show that all FUs in Brazil present upward trends of COVID-19. In some FUs, the slowdown in DPC in the last segment must be considered with caution. Each FU is at a different stage of the pandemic and, therefore, non-pharmacological measures should be adopted accordingly.

【 授权许可】

Unknown