Contributions of climate change, land use change and CO2 to changes in the gross primary productivity of the Tibetan Plateau

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

Binghao JIA¹  Xin LUO¹  Xin LAI¹ 

[1] Chengdu University of Information Technology;

关键词: multi-model ensemble;    gross primary productivity;    co2;    land-use and land-cover change;    tibetan plateau;   

DOI  :  10.1080/16742834.2020.1695515

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are highly vulnerable to climate change, rising CO2 concentration, and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC), but their contributions to changes in the gross primary productivity (GPP) of the TP are not clearly understood. In this study, the role of these three factors on the interannual variations (IAVs) and trends of the TP’s GPP were investigated using 12 terrestrial biosphere models. The ensemble simulations showed that climate change can explain most of the changes in the GPP, while the direct effect of LULCC and rising CO2 (mainly fertilization effect) contributed 10% and −14% to the mean GPP values, 37% and −20% to the IAV, and 52% and −24% to the GPP’s trend, respectively. The LULCC showed higher contributions to the significant positive trend in the annual GPP of the TP. However, the results from different model simulations showed that considerable uncertainties were associated with the effects of LULCC on the GPP of the TP.

【 授权许可】

Unknown