Combined Optimization Prediction Model of Regional Wind Power Based on Convolution Neural Network and Similar Days

Machines

Wenting Zha¹  Licheng Yan¹  Yalong Li¹  Fan Yang¹ 

[1] School of Mechanical Electronic and Information Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083, China;

关键词: wind power prediction;    combination model;    convolutional neural network;    similar days;    optimization algorithm;   

DOI  :  10.3390/machines8040080

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

With the continuous optimization of energy structures, wind power generation has become the dominant new energy source. The strong random fluctuation of natural wind will bring challenges to power system dispatching, so it is necessary to predict wind power. In order to improve the short-term prediction accuracy of regional wind power, this paper proposes a new combination prediction model based on convolutional neural network (CNN) and similar days analysis. Firstly, the least square fitting and batch normalization (BN) are used to preprocess the data, and then the recent historical wind power data set for CNN is established. Secondly, the Pearson correlation coefficient and cosine similarity combination method are utilized to find similar days in the long-term data set, and the prediction model based on similar days is constructed by the weighting method. Finally, based on the particle swarm optimization (PSO) method, a combined forecasting model is established. The results show that the combined model can accurately predict the future short-term wind power curve, and the prediction accuracy is improved to different extents compared to a single method.

【 授权许可】

Unknown