Forecast of sea surface temperature off the Peruvian coast using anautoregressive integrated moving average model

Revista Peruana de Biología

Carlos Quispe¹  Sara Purca¹ 

[1] Centro de Investigaciones en Modelado Oceanográfi co y Biológico Pesquero (CIMOBP),Institutodel MardelPerú(IMARPE), Apdo. 22, Callao, Perú.;

关键词: ENOS;    modelo ARIMA;    temperatura superficial del mar;    series temporales;    Perú.;   

DOI  :  10.15381/rpb.v14i1.2164

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

El Niño connects globally climate, ecosystems and socio-economic activities. Since 1980 this eventhas been tried to be predicted, but until now the statistical and dynamical models are insuffi cient.Thus, the objective of the present work was to explore using an autoregressive moving averagemodel the effect of El Niño over the sea surface temperature (TSM) off the Peruvian coast. Thework involved 5 stages: identifi cation, estimation, diagnostic checking, forecasting and validation.Simple and partial autocorrelation functions (FAC and FACP) were used to identify and reformulatethe orders of the model parameters, as well as Akaike information criterium (AIC) and Schwarzcriterium (SC) for the selection of the best models during the diagnostic checking. Among the mainresults the models ARIMA(12,0,11) were proposed, which simulated monthly conditions in agreement with the observed conditions off the Peruvian coast: cold conditions at the end of 2004, andneutral conditions at the beginning of 2005.

【 授权许可】

Unknown