Potential growth in Turkey: Sources and trends

Central Bank Review

Ufuk Demiroğlu¹  Emre Çakır²  Orhun Sevinç³  E. Meltem Baştan⁴ 

[1] Centre for Macroeconomics, London School of Economics and Political Science, Houghton Street London, WC2A 2AE, UK;Corresponding author. Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, İstiklal Cad. No:10, 06100, Ulus, Ankara, Turkey.;Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (İstanbul Office), Küçüksu Cad. No:64/B, 34768 Ümraniye, İstanbul, Turkey;Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, İstiklal Cad. No:10, 06100 Ulus, Ankara, Turkey;

关键词: Potential GDP;    Output Gap;    Turkish Economy;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

This paper estimates potential growth in Turkey using a production function estimation approach. Our approach aims to measure the inputs of production in the most detailed fashion that is possible and empirically addresses concepts of sustainable potential growth for Turkey. While developing measures of the sources of potential growth, we provide a thorough discussion of the estimated trends in labor force participation, capital growth by asset type, and total factor productivity since the mid-2000s. Our results suggest that the key driver of potential growth has increasingly been capital accumulation. The declining trend in the positive TFP growth stands out as the key area of improvement for potential growth.

【 授权许可】

Unknown