The potential distributional health and financial benefits of increased tobacco taxes in Ethiopia: Findings from a modeling study

SSM: Population Health

Solomon Tessema Memirie¹  Averi Chakrabarti²  Mizan Kiros Mirutse²  Seblewongel Yigletu³  Stéphane Verguet⁴ 

[1] Corresponding author. Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA, 02115, USA.;Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA, 02115, USA;Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University, NBH1, 4killo King George VI Street, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia;Federal Ministry of Health of Ethiopia, 1234 Sudan Street, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia;

关键词: Tobacco control;    Cigarettes;    Taxes;    Ethiopia;    Sub-Saharan Africa;    Equity;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Ethiopia raised taxes on tobacco products in early 2020, increasing the overall price of the typical pack of cigarettes by about 67%. We quantify the potential impacts of Ethiopia's tobacco tax hike on various outcomes—life years, tax revenues, cigarette expenditures and catastrophic health expenditures (CHE). Using parameters like price elasticity of demand for cigarettes and smoking prevalence in Ethiopia from the existing literature and secondary data sources, we model the potential implications of the reform at the population level and for different wealth quintiles. We focus only on men since a small proportion of Ethiopian women smoke. Results indicate that Ethiopia's tax hike could induce a significant proportion of current smokers to quit smoking and thereby save almost eight million years of life in the current population. The reform is also likely to increase tax revenues by USD26 million in the first year after its introduction. The richest quintile will bear the greatest share of this higher tax burden and the poorest will bear the least. Additionally, deaths due to the main diseases associated with smoking will fall. This is expected to avert up to 173,000 CHE cases due to the out-of-pocket costs that would have been incurred in obtaining medical treatment. This analysis highlights that cigarette tax hikes in countries that have low smoking prevalence can reduce smoking even further, and thereby protect against the future health and financial costs of smoking. Importantly, the effects of these policies can be progressive across the income spectrum.

【 授权许可】

Unknown