Effects of climate change on the potential distribution of the threatened relict Dipentodon sinicus of subtropical forests in East Asia: Recommendations for management and conservation

Global Ecology and Conservation

Haruka Ohashi¹  Diao-Shun Huang¹  Yi-Fei Dong²  Shuaifeng Li³  Jordi López-Pujol⁴  Sonia Herrando-Moraira⁵  Tetsuya Matsui⁵  Cindy Q. Tang⁶  Li-Qin Shen⁶  Yun-Fang Li⁷  Peng-Bin Han⁸ 

[1] Corresponding author.;Botanic Institute of Barcelona (IBB, CSIC-Ajuntament de Barcelona), Passeig Del Migdia s/n, Barcelona, 08038, Catalonia, Spain;China Parenting Network Holding Limited, No. 600 Zhujiang Road, Xuanwu District, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210018, China;Forestry Exploration and Design Company Limited, Beijing Linjuzhilian Institute, No. 290 Xiaobao North Street, Songzhuang Town, Tongzhou District, Beijing, 101118, China;Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, Matsunosato 1, Tsukuba-shi, Ibaraki-ken, 305-8687, Japan;Institute of Ecology and Geobotany, College of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University, Dongwaihuan South Road, University Town, Chenggong New District, Kunming, Yunnan, 650504, China;Nanpanjiang National Forest Farm of Miao Autonomous Prefecture, Southwestern Guizhou, No. 6 Xingtiangonglu, Xingyi, Guizhou, 562400, China;Research Institute on Resource Insects, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Kunming, Yunnan, 650224, China;

关键词: Dipentodon sinicus;    Ecological niche modeling;    Global warming;    Potential habitat;    Protected areas;    Southwestern China;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Dipentodon sinicus Dunn. (Dipentodonaceae) is a rare and threatened relict plant species usually found co-dominating with other relict plants in subtropical forest patches in highly fragmented habitats of southwestern China, northern Vietnam and northeastern Myanmar of East Asia. To date, its management and conservation strategies in the light of climate change have not been explored. We evaluated effects of climate change on the distribution of climatically suitable areas of D. sinicus as found prevailing during the last glacial maximum (LGM), the mid-Holocene and the present time, and predicted the distribution of climatically suitable habitats in 2070 throughout East Asia. The results as derived from ecological niche modeling (ENM) show the current distribution to be limited to the prehistoric (the mid-Holocene and LGM) refugia, and to indicate decreasing probability of presence and a reducing range of distribution for 2070. In addition, the suitable areas predicted with high probability (0.5–1) only account for on average 9.8% of the total area of potential habitats (threshold‒1) among the models for the year 2070, thereby indicating that D. sinicus is highly vulnerable. Under all the future scenarios for the year 2070, 69–74.2% of potential habitats in China would be outside protected areas. We assess and propose priorities for protected areas, and provide suggestions for conservation management strategies.

【 授权许可】

Unknown