Implications from assessing environmental effects on spatio-temporal pattern of schistosomiasis in the Yangtze Basin, China

Geospatial Health

Yi Hu¹  Fenghua Gao²  Zhijie Zhang³  Michael P. Ward⁴  Yan Wang⁵ 

[1] Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai;Anhui Provincial Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Hefei;Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai;Faculty of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney NSW;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing;

关键词: Schistosomiasis;    Spatio-temporal modelling;    Nonlinear and linear effects;    Environmental determinants;    China;   

DOI  :  10.4081/gh.2018.730

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Schistosomiasis remains a major public health problem in the South China, particularly in lake and marshland regions. Modelling the spatio-temporal pattern of schistosomiasis guides disease prevention and control programs and is a research area of growing interest. However, few attempts have been made to evaluate the changing (nonlinear) effects of environmental determinants on schistosomiasis. In this context, a hierarchical spatiotemporal model was applied to evaluate how environmental determinants affect the changing trend of schistosomiasis in Anhui Province, China, based on annual parasitological and environmental data for the period 1997-2010. Results showed that – compared to changing effect – environmental factors had a constant (linear) effect on schistosomiasis. The disease was also found to fluctuate over time, which was due to the two latest national schistosomiasis control programs. In addition to statistical benefits of this approach, our analysis implied that climate change might not contribute to variation of schistosomiasis; rather, prevention activities affect schistosomiasis when the disease prevalence remains at a low level. Finally, the analytical method proposed in our study provides a template for modelling the spatio-temporal pattern of a disease whose transmission is largely determined by environmental determinants.

【 授权许可】

Unknown