Historic and Simulated Desert-Oasis Ecotone Changes in the Arid Tarim River Basin, China

Remote Sensing

Yi Wang¹  PatientMindje Kayumba¹  Jingxiu Qin¹  Fan Sun¹  Yupeng Li¹  Qifei Zhang¹  Yaning Chen¹ 

[1] State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China;

关键词: Tarim River Basin;    desert-oasis ecotone;    land-use change;    CA-Markov model;   

DOI  :  10.3390/rs13040647

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The desert-oasis ecotone, as a crucial natural barrier, maintains the stability of oasis agricultural production and protects oasis habitat security. This paper investigates the dynamic evolution of the desert-oasis ecotone in the Tarim River Basin and predicts the near-future land-use change in the desert-oasis ecotone using the cellular automata–Markov (CA-Markov) model. Results indicate that the overall area of the desert-oasis ecotone shows a shrinking trend (from 67,642 km² in 1990 to 46,613 km² in 2015) and the land-use change within the desert-oasis ecotone is mainly manifested by the conversion of a large amount of forest and grass area into arable land. The increasing demand for arable land for groundwater has led to a decline in the groundwater level, which is an important reason for the habitat deterioration in the desert-oasis ecotone. The rising temperature and drought have further exacerbated this trend. Assuming the current trend in development without intervention, the CA-Markov model predicts that by 2030, there will be an additional 1566 km² of arable land and a reduction of 1151 km² in forested area and grassland within the desert-oasis ecotone, which will inevitably further weaken the ecological barrier role of the desert-oasis ecotone and trigger a growing ecological crisis.

【 授权许可】

Unknown