期刊论文详细信息
Earth's Future
Toward Calibrated Language for Effectively Communicating the Results of Extreme Event Attribution Studies
Sarah E. Perkins‐Kirkpatrick1  Michael F. Wehner2  Andrew D. King3  Sophie C. Lewis4 
[1] Climate Change Research Centre University of New South Wales Sydney New South Wales Australia;Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA USA;School of Earth Sciences The University of Melbourne Parkville Victoria Australia;School of Science University of New South Wales Canberra ACT Australia;
关键词: extreme events;    climate change;    attribution;    communication;   
DOI  :  10.1029/2019EF001273
来源: DOAJ
【 摘 要 】

Abstract Extreme event attribution studies attempt to quantify the role of human influences in observed weather and climate extremes. These studies are of broad scientific and public interest, although quantitative results (e.g., that a specific event was made a specific number of times more likely because of anthropogenic forcings) can be difficult to communicate accurately to a variety of audiences and difficult for audiences to interpret. Here, we focus on how results of these studies can be effectively communicated using standardized language and propose, for the first time, a set of calibrated terms to describe event attribution results. Using these terms and an accompanying visual guide, results are presented in terms of likelihood of event changes and the associated uncertainties. This standardized language will allow clearer communication and interpretation of probabilities by the public and stakeholders.

【 授权许可】

Unknown   

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