Potential Influences of Volcanic Eruptions on Future Global Land Monsoon Precipitation Changes

Earth's Future

Ingo Bethke¹  Wenmin Man²  Meng Zuo²  Bo Wu²  Tianjun Zhou²  Xiaolong Chen²  Liwei Zou²  John T. Fasullo³ 

[1] Geophysical Institute Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research University of Bergen Bergen Norway;LASG Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China;National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA;

关键词: climate projections;    episodic volcanic eruptions;    global land monsoon;    summer precipitation;    time of emergence;   

DOI  :  10.1029/2020EF001803

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Abstract The global monsoon system is of exceptional socioeconomic importance owing to its impacts on two‐thirds of the globe’s population. Major volcanic eruptions strongly influence global land monsoon (GLM) precipitation change. By using 60 plausible eruption scenarios sampled from reconstructed volcanic proxies over the past 2,500 years, 21st century volcanic influences on GLM precipitation projections are examined with an Earth system model under a moderate emission scenario. The decadal‐scale ensemble spread with realistic eruptions (VOLC) increases by 17.5% and 20.1% compared to no‐volcanic (NO‐VOLC) and constant background‐volcanic (VOLC‐CONST) scenarios, respectively. Compared with NO‐VOLC, the centennial mean VOLC GLM precipitation shows a 10% overall reduction and regionally, Asia is the most impacted. Changes in atmospheric circulation in the aftermath of large volcanic eruptions match the global warming response patterns well with opposite sign, with the North American monsoon precipitation enhanced following large volcanic eruptions, which is in sharp contrast to the robust decrease in Asian monsoon rainfall. Volcanic activity could delay the time of emergence of anthropogenic influence by five years on average over about 60% of the GLM area. Our results demonstrate the importance of statistical representation of potential volcanism for the projections of future monsoon variability. Quantifying volcanic impacts on regional climate projections and their socioeconomic influences on infrastructure planning, food security, and disaster management should be a priority of future work.

【 授权许可】

Unknown