Advancing Marine Biogeochemical and Ecosystem Reanalyses and Forecasts as Tools for Monitoring and Managing Ecosystem Health

Frontiers in Marine Science

Marilaure Gregoire¹  Emlyn Jones²  Julien Lamouroux⁴  the GODAE OceanView Marine Ecosystem Analysis and Prediction Task Team⁵  Raghu Murtugudde⁵  Coralie Perruche⁶  Katja Fennel⁷  Alessandro Crise⁸  Gianpiero Cossarini⁸  David Ford⁹  Stefano Ciavatta^1,10  Christopher W. Brown^1,11  Hae-Cheol Kim^1,11  Christopher A. Edwards^1,12  Marion Gehlen^1,13  Pierre Brasseur^1,14  Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs^1,15 

[1] Mary, Gloucester Point, VA, United States;0MAST-FOCUS, Department of Astrophysics, Geophysics and Oceanography, Liége University, Liége, Belgium;1Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Hobart, TAS, Australia;2I.M. Systems Group, Inc., Rockville, MD, United States;3Mercator Océan, Ramonville-Saint-Agne, France;4Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States;Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada;Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste, Italy;Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom;National Centre for Earth Observation, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, United Kingdom;National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), College Park, MD, United States;Ocean Sciences Department, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States;UMR8212 Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), Gif-sur-Yvette, France;Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, Grenoble, France;;Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William &

关键词: biogeochemical model;    ecological model;    forecasting;    reanalysis;    climate projection;    scenario;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fmars.2019.00089

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Ocean ecosystems are subject to a multitude of stressors, including changes in ocean physics and biogeochemistry, and direct anthropogenic influences. Implementation of protective and adaptive measures for ocean ecosystems requires a combination of ocean observations with analysis and prediction tools. These can guide assessments of the current state of ocean ecosystems, elucidate ongoing trends and shifts, and anticipate impacts of climate change and management policies. Analysis and prediction tools are defined here as ocean circulation models that are coupled to biogeochemical or ecological models. The range of potential applications for these systems is broad, ranging from reanalyses for the assessment of past and current states, and short-term and seasonal forecasts, to scenario simulations including climate change projections. The objectives of this article are to illustrate current capabilities with regard to the three types of applications, and to discuss the challenges and opportunities. Representative examples of global and regional systems are described with particular emphasis on those in operational or pre-operational use. With regard to the benefits and challenges, similar considerations apply to biogeochemical and ecological prediction systems as do to physical systems. However, at present there are at least two major differences: (1) biogeochemical observation streams are much sparser than physical streams presenting a significant hinderance, and (2) biogeochemical and ecological models are largely unconstrained because of insufficient observations. Expansion of biogeochemical and ecological observation systems will allow for significant advances in the development and application of analysis and prediction tools for ocean biogeochemistry and ecosystems, with multiple societal benefits.

【 授权许可】

Unknown