Heterogeneous epidemic modelling within an enclosed space and corresponding Bayesian estimation

Infectious Disease Modelling

Daihai He¹  Shi Zhao²  Conghua Wen³  Junwei Wei³  Mu He⁴  Zheng Feei Ma⁵  Jiayu Ji⁶ 

[1] CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China;Corresponding author.;Department of Financial and Actuarial Mathematics, School of Science, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, China;Department of Foundational Mathematics, School of Science, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, China;Department of Health and Environmental Science, School of Science, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, China;JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China;

关键词: COVID-19;    Epidemic model;    Incubation period;    Transmission;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Since March 11th, 2020, COVID-19 has been a global pandemic for more than one years due to a long and infectious incubation period. This paper establishes a heterogeneous epidemic model that divides the incubation period into infectious and non-infectious and employs the Bayesian framework to model the ‘Diamond Princess’ enclosed space incident. The heterogeneity includes two different identities, two transmission methods, two different-size rooms, and six transmission stages. This model is also applicable to similar mixed structures, including closed schools, hospitals, and communities. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, our mathematical modeling can provide management insights to the governments and policymakers on how the COVID-19 disease has spread and what prevention strategies still need to be taken.

【 授权许可】

Unknown