A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation

The Lancet Regional Health. Europe

Rudi Balling¹  Matjaž Perc²  Peter Klimek²  Sebastian Bernd Mohr³  Anthony Staines⁴  Ewa Szczurek⁵  Steven Van Gucht⁶  Uga Dumpis⁷  Martin McKee⁸  Pirta Hotulainen⁹  Armin Nassehi^1,10  Claudia Hanson^1,11  Martyn Pickersgill^1,11  Philippe Beutels^1,12  Elena Petelos^1,12  Viola Priesemann^1,12  Emil Nafis Iftekhar^1,12  Tyll Krüger^1,13  Sotirios Tsiodras^1,14  Mirjam Kretzschmar^1,15  Enrico Glaab^1,16  Sarah Cuschieri^1,17  Jenny Krutzinna^1,18  André Calero Valdez^1,19  Helena Machado^2,20  Carlos Martins^2,21  Joacim Rocklöv^2,22  Eva Schernhammer^2,23  Simon Bauer^2,24  Eva Grill^2,24  Thomas Czypionka^2,25  Barbara Prainsack^2,26  Peter Willeit^2,27  Nicola Low^2,28 

[1] Corresponding author.;Tropical Medicine, London, UK;Department of Community Medicine, Health Information and Decision Sciences of the Faculty of Medicine, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal;Department of Political Science, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria;Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden;Dublin City University, Dublin, Ireland;Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria, and London School of Economics, London, UK;Institute for Social Sciences, University of Minho, Braga, Portugal;;Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden, and London School of Hygiene &;London School of Hygiene &Ludwig-Maximilians-University München, München, Germany;Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany;Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria, and Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Vienna, Austria;Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria;Minerva Foundation Institute for Medical Research, Helsinki, Finland;Pauls Stradins Clinical University Hospital, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia;RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany;University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands;University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium;University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway;University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland;University of Crete, Crete, Greece, and Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands;University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK;University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg, Luxembourg;University of Malta, Msida, Malta;University of Maribor, Maribor, Slovenia, and Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan;University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland;Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Wroclaw, Poland;

关键词: COVID-19;    SARS-CoV-2;    expert survey;    Delphi study;    group forecast;    non-pharmaceutical interventions;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic.

【 授权许可】

Unknown