Numerical Modeling of the Natural and Manmade Factors Influencing Past and Current Changes in Polar, Mid-Latitude and Tropical Ozone

Atmosphere

VenerY. Galin¹  PolinaA. Blakitnaya²  SergeiP. Smyshlyaev²  AndreiR. Jakovlev² 

[1] Institute of Numerical Mathematics RAS, Gubkina str., 8, 119991 Moscow, Russia;Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Voronezhskaya Str., 79, 192007 Saint-Petersburg, Russia;

关键词: stratospheric ozone;    natural and anthropogenic factors;    numerical modeling;    satellite observations;    trend estimations;   

DOI  :  10.3390/atmos11010076

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

A chemistry−climate model of the lower and middle atmosphere is used to compare the role of natural and anthropogenic factors in the observed variability of stratospheric ozone. Numerical experiments have been carried out on several scenarios of separate and combined effects of solar activity, stratospheric aerosol, sea surface temperature, greenhouse gases, and ozone-depleting substances emissions on ozone for the period from 1979 to 2020. Simulations for the past and present periods are compared to the results of ground-based and satellite observations. Estimates of observed trends in column total ozone for the entire period 1980−2018 and separately for the late twentieth and early twenty-first century are presented.

【 授权许可】

Unknown