Optimal control analysis of a COVID-19 and tuberculosis co-dynamics model

Informatics in Medicine Unlocked

L.D. Gning¹  H. Rwezaura²  M.S. Goudiaby³  Ben M. Dia⁴  M.L. Diagne⁵  J.M. Tchuenche⁶ 

[1] Corresponding author.;College of Petroleum Engineering and Geosciences (CPG), King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (KFUPM), Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia;Département de Mathématiques, UFR des Sciences et Technologies, Université Assane Seck de Ziguinchor, BP 523, Ziguinchor, Senegal;Département de Mathématiques, UFR des Sciences et Technologies, Université de Thies, Thies, Senegal;LERSTAD, UFR Sciences appliquées et Technologie, BP 234, Université Gaston Berger, Saint-Louis, Senegal;Mathematics Department, University of Dar es Salaam, P.O. Box 35062, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania;

关键词: Bifurcation;    Co-infection;    COVID-19;    Optimal control;    Reproduction number;    Tuberculosis;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Tuberculosis and COVID-19 are among the diseases with major global public health concern and great socio-economic impact. Co-infection of these two diseases is inevitable due to their geographical overlap, a potential double blow as their clinical similarities could hamper strategies to mitigate their spread and transmission dynamics. To theoretically investigate the impact of control measures on their long-term dynamics, we formulate and analyze a mathematical model for the co-infection of COVID-19 and tuberculosis. Basic properties of the tuberculosis only and COVID-19 only sub-models are investigated as well as bifurcation analysis (possibility of the co-existence of the disease-free and endemic equilibria). The disease-free and endemic equilibria are globally asymptotically stable. The model is extended into an optimal control system by incorporating five control measures. These are: tuberculosis awareness campaign, prevention against COVID-19 (e.g., face mask, physical distancing), control against co-infection, tuberculosis and COVID-19 treatment. Five strategies which are combinations of the control measures are investigated. Strategy B which focuses on COVID-19 prevention, treatment and control of co-infection yields a better outcome in terms of the number of COVID-19 cases prevented at a lower percentage of the total cost of this strategy.

【 授权许可】

Unknown