Forecast of temperature changes in the Altai in the next 50 years based on reconstructed ice core data from Belukha Mountain

Lëd i Sneg

T. S. Papina¹  O. V. Lovtskaya¹  S. S. Eyrikh¹  N. S. Malygina¹ 

[1] Institute of Water and Ecological Problems, Siberian Branch of RAS, Barnaul;

关键词: altai;    forecast of climate change;    fourier analysis;    ice core.;   

DOI  :  10.15356/2076-6734-2013-3-26-32

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Paleotemperature time series reconstructed from δ¹⁸O changes in Belukha ice core were expanded into several heteroperiodic sinusoidal functions with the help of the spectral Fourier analysis. The main harmonics selected from obtained periodogram have allowed to perform (without taking into account the contribution of changes in the existing anthropogenic load) scenario forecasts of average annual (from March to November) temperature changes in the Altai region in the nearest future (until 2050). Forecast shows that a cold phase came to Altai since 2008 reaches its maximum by 2020. Then after the 15-year period of temperature increase a cold phase will come back after 2035. Our forecast agrees very well with the forecast made from the natural climatic variability (for example, the change of global temperature for the last 150 years).

【 授权许可】

Unknown