Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation

eLife

Dmitri Kuznetsov¹  Gwenaëlle Dauphin²  Jean Artois³  Ioannis Xenarios⁴  Marius Gilbert⁵  Scott H Newman⁶  Catherine Linard⁷  Timothy P Robinson⁸  Celia Chaiban⁸  Madhur S Dhingra⁸  Robin Engler⁸  Filip Claes⁹  Sophie Von Dobschuetz⁹  Robin Liechti⁹  Xiangming Xiao⁹ 

[1] Center for Integrative Genomics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland;Center for Spatial Analysis, University of Oklahoma, Norman, United States;Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying, Government of Haryana, Panchkula, India;Department of Geography, Université de Namur, Namur, Belgium;Institute of Biodiversity Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, China;Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, United States;Livestock Systems and Environment, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya;Spatial Epidemiology Lab, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium;Swiss-Prot and Vital-IT group, Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Lausanne, Switzerland;

关键词: avian influenza;    spatial epidemiology;    H5N1;   

DOI  :  10.7554/eLife.19571

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Global disease suitability models are essential tools to inform surveillance systems and enable early detection. We present the first global suitability model of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and demonstrate that reliable predictions can be obtained at global scale. Best predictions are obtained using spatial predictor variables describing host distributions, rather than land use or eco-climatic spatial predictor variables, with a strong association with domestic duck and extensively raised chicken densities. Our results also support a more systematic use of spatial cross-validation in large-scale disease suitability modelling compared to standard random cross-validation that can lead to unreliable measure of extrapolation accuracy. A global suitability model of the H5 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses, a group of viruses that recently spread extensively in Asia and the US, shows in comparison a lower spatial extrapolation capacity than the HPAI H5N1 models, with a stronger association with intensively raised chicken densities and anthropogenic factors.

【 授权许可】

Unknown