Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts in a Tropical River Basin: A Case Study of the Cauto River, Cuba

Water

Gerald Corzo¹  Thomas Kretzschmar²  Yalina Montecelos-Zamora²  Tereza Cavazos³  Eugenio Molina-Navarro⁴  EnriqueR. Vivoni⁵ 

[1]School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA

[2]Departamento de Geología, Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE),Ensenada 22860, Mexico

[3]Departamento de Oceanografía Física, Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE), Ensenada 22860, Mexico

[4]Department of Integrated Water Systems and Governance, UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, 2611 Delft, The Netherlands

[5]

[6]School of Earth and Space Exploration &

关键词: rainfall–runoff modeling;    SWAT;    RegCM4.3;    Cuba;    climate change;    water management;   

DOI  :  10.3390/w10091135

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was applied for the first time in Cuba to assess the potential impacts of climate change on water availability in the Cauto River basin. The model was calibrated (and validated) for the 2001–2006 (2007–2010) period at a monthly timescale in two subbasins La Fuente and Las Coloradas, representative of middle and upper sections of the Cauto basin; the calibrated models showed good performance. The output available for the regional climate Model RegCM4.3 was used to force the calibrated SWAT models to simulate a baseline (1970–2000) period and near-future (2015–2039) hydrologic regimes under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 emission scenario. The future projections suggest regional increases of 1.5 °C in mean annual temperature and a 38% decrease in mean annual precipitation in the subbasins. These changes translate to possible reductions in the annual streamflow of up to 61% with respect to the baseline period, whereas the aquifer recharge in the basin is expected to decrease up to 58%, with a consequent reduction of groundwater flow, especially during the boreal summer wet season. These projection scenarios should be of interest to water resources managers in tropical regions.

【 授权许可】

Unknown