Application of Reliability Analysis for Risk Ranking in a Levee Reconstruction Project

Sustainability

Anita Cerić¹  Meho Saša Kovačević¹  Gordana Ivoš¹  Lovorka Librić¹ 

[1] Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Zagreb, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia;

关键词: levee;    risk ranking;    brainstorming technique;    analytic network process (anp);    group decision making;    reliability analysis;   

DOI  :  10.3390/su12041404

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Levees are embankments designed for passive flood protection. In order to reduce the potential of climate-induced flooding risks, it is necessary to reconstruct or upgrade the existing levees. Flood risk management aims to reduce the probability of floods and their potential adverse effects on the population, economy, and environment. This paper presents the novel application of reliability analysis for risk ranking in the Otok Virje-Brezje levee reconstruction project in the Republic of Croatia. To identify, verify and analyse key risks, a group of 35 experts, who were directly involved in the levee reconstruction project or have extensive experience in similar projects, was selected. An Analytic network process (ANP) was used for group multi criteria decision-making. Quantitative and qualitative approaches to risk analysis were combined. Different experts from the various organisations may have diverse interests and goals. The geometric mean method was chosen to reach group consensus. The resources that will be allocated to the risk responses are proportional to the risk exposures. To analyse the reliability of the group consensus-reaching method a determination of the risk ranking probability matrix is proposed by using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Different decision-making approaches are proposed for cases in which consensus is not reached with satisfactory reliability.

【 授权许可】

Unknown