A Review of Tsunami Hazards in the Makran Subduction Zone

Geosciences

ZaherHossein Shomali¹  Amin Rashidi¹  Nasser Keshavarz Farajkhah²  Mohammadsadegh Nouri³  Denys Dutykh⁴ 

[1] Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran 1435944411, Iran;Research Institute of Petroleum Industry, Tehran 1485733111, Iran;School of Civil Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran 1417613131, Iran;Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LAMA, 73000 Chambéry, France;

关键词: Makran subduction zone;    tsunami hazard;    deterministic hazard assessment;    probabilistic hazard assessment;    uncertainty quantification;    numerical modeling;   

DOI  :  10.3390/geosciences10090372

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The uncertain tsunamigenic potential of the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) has made it an interesting natural laboratory for tsunami-related studies. This study aims to review the recent activities on tsunami hazard in the Makran subduction zone with a focus on deterministic and probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments. While almost all studies focused on tsunami hazard from the Makran subduction thrust, other local sources such as splay faults and landslides can be also real threats in the future. Far-field tsunami sources such as Sumatra-Andaman and Java subduction zones, commonly lumped as the Sunda subduction zone, do not seem to pose a serious risk to the Makran coastlines. The tsunamigenic potential of the western segment of the MSZ should not be underestimated considering the new evidence from geological studies and lessons from past tsunamis in the world. An overview of the results of tsunami hazard studies shows that the coastal area between Kereti to Ormara along the shoreline of Iran-Pakistan and the coastal segment between Muscat and Sur along Oman’s shoreline are the most hazardous areas. Uncertainties in studying tsunami hazard for the Makran region are large. We recommend that future studies mainly focus on the role of thick sediments, a better understanding of the plates interface geometry, the source mechanism and history of extreme-wave deposits, the contribution of other local tsunamigenic sources and vulnerability assessment for all coastlines of the whole Makran region.

【 授权许可】

Unknown