Projecting Marine Mammal Distribution in a Changing Climate

Frontiers in Marine Science

Lori Quakenbush¹  Dorothy M. Dick²  Jarrod A. Santora³  Jerome Fiechter⁴  Jaume Forcada⁵  Paul Spencer⁶  Charles Stock⁷  Karin A. Forney⁸  William Sydeman⁹  Jonathan A. Hare^1,10  Alistair J. Hobday^1,13  Kyle Van Houtan^1,14  Daniel Howell^1,15  Robin S. Waples^1,16  Kathleen M. Stafford^1,17  Kristin L. Laidre^1,17  Nate Mantua^1,18  Peter O. Thomas^2,20  Peter Boveng^2,21  Matthew D. Lettrich^2,23  Roger B. Griffis^2,23  Jason D. Baker^2,24  Gregory K. Silber^2,25  Elizabeth A. Becker^2,26  Mark Baumgartner^2,27 

[1] 0Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Fairbanks, AK, United States;0Ocean Associates, Inc., Arlington, VA, United States;1Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States;1Ocean Sciences Department, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States;2British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, United Kingdom;2NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA, United States;3Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, Princeton, NJ, United States;3Moss Landing Marine Laboratories, Moss Landing, CA, United States;4Farallon Institute, Petaluma, CA, United States;4NOAA Fisheries, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Woods Hole, MA, United States;5CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, TAS, Australia;5Monterey Bay Aquarium, Monterey, CA, United States;6Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia;6Duke University, Nicholas School of the Environment, Durham, NC, United States;7Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway;7NOAA Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA, United States;8Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States;9Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, CA, United States;ECS Federal, LLC, Fairfax, VA, United States;Marine Mammal Commission, Bethesda, MD, United States;NOAA Fisheries, Marine Mammal Laboratory, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA, United States;NOAA Fisheries, Office of Protected Resources, Silver Spring, MD, United States;NOAA Fisheries, Office of Science and Technology, Silver Spring, MD, United States;NOAA Fisheries, Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA, United States;Smultea Environmental Sciences, Washington Grove, MD, United States;Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Moss Landing, CA, United States;Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States;

关键词: marine mammal distribution and abundance;    climate-change;    marine ecosystems;    predicting and forecasting;    Marine mammal conservation;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fmars.2017.00413

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Climate-related shifts in marine mammal range and distribution have been observed in some populations; however, the nature and magnitude of future responses are uncertain in novel environments projected under climate change. This poses a challenge for agencies charged with management and conservation of these species. Specialized diets, restricted ranges, or reliance on specific substrates or sites (e.g., for pupping) make many marine mammal populations particularly vulnerable to climate change. High-latitude, predominantly ice-obligate, species have experienced some of the largest changes in habitat and distribution and these are expected to continue. Efforts to predict and project marine mammal distributions to date have emphasized data-driven statistical habitat models. These have proven successful for short time-scale (e.g., seasonal) management activities, but confidence that such relationships will hold for multi-decade projections and novel environments is limited. Recent advances in mechanistic modeling of marine mammals (i.e., models that rely on robust physiological and ecological principles expected to hold under climate change) may address this limitation. The success of such approaches rests on continued advances in marine mammal ecology, behavior, and physiology together with improved regional climate projections. The broad scope of this challenge suggests initial priorities be placed on vulnerable species or populations (those already experiencing declines or projected to undergo ecological shifts resulting from climate changes that are consistent across climate projections) and species or populations for which ample data already exist (with the hope that these may inform climate change sensitivities in less well observed species or populations elsewhere). The sustained monitoring networks, novel observations, and modeling advances required to more confidently project marine mammal distributions in a changing climate will ultimately benefit management decisions across time-scales, further promoting the resilience of marine mammal populations.

【 授权许可】

Unknown