Assessing the impact of adherence to Non-pharmaceutical interventions and indirect transmission on the dynamics of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

Sarafa A. Iyaniwura¹  Musa Rabiu²  Jummy F. David³  Jude D. Kong⁴ 

[1] 1. Department of Mathematics and Institute of Applied Mathematics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada;2. School of Mathematics, Statistics & Computer Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa;3. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada 4. Canadian Centre for Diseases Modeling (CCDM), York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;3. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada5. Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC), York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada 6. Laboratory for Applied and Industrial Mathematics (LIAM), York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada;

关键词: covid-19;    epidemics;    sars-cov-2;    direct and indirect transmission;    seir models;    non-pharmaceutical intervention;    adherent and non-adherent;    population dynamics;   

DOI  :  10.3934/mbe.2021439

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Adherence to public health policies such as the non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented against COVID-19 plays a major role in reducing infections and controlling the spread of the diseases. In addition, understanding the transmission dynamics of the disease is also important in order to make and implement efficient public health policies. In this paper, we developed an SEIR-type compartmental model to assess the impact of adherence to COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions and indirect transmission on the dynamics of the disease. Our model considers both direct and indirect transmission routes and stratifies the population into two groups: those that adhere to COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and those that do not adhere to the NPIs. We compute the control reproduction number and the final epidemic size relation for our model and study the effect of different parameters of the model on these quantities. Our results show that there is a significant benefit in adhering to the COVID-19 NPIs.

【 授权许可】

Unknown