Modelling Forest Fires Using Complex Networks

Mathematical and Computational Applications

Nuno A. Ribeiro¹  Luís M. Lopes²  Maria C. Grácio³  Sara Perestrelo³ 

[1] Institute of Earth Sciences, Universidade de Évora, Largo dos Colegiais 2, 7004-516 Évora, Portugal;Research Centre for Mathematics and Applications (CIMA), Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, R. Conselheiro Emídio Navarro 1, 1959-007 Lisboa, Portugal;Research Centre for Mathematics and Applications (CIMA), Universidade de Évora, Largo dos Colegiais 2, 7004-516 Évora, Portugal;

关键词: complex networks;    multilayer networks;    fire spreading;    cellular automata;    forest fires;   

DOI  :  10.3390/mca26040068

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Forest fires have been a major threat to the environment throughout history. In order to mitigate its consequences, we present, in a first of a series of works, a mathematical model with the purpose of predicting fire spreading in a given land portion divided into patches, considering the area and the rate of spread of each patch as inputs. The rate of spread can be estimated from previous knowledge on fuel availability, weather and terrain conditions. We compute the time duration of the spreading process in a land patch in order to construct and parametrize a landscape network, using cellular automata simulations. We use the multilayer network model to propose a network of networks at the landscape scale, where the nodes are the local patches, each with their own spreading dynamics. We compute some respective network measures and aim, in further work, for the establishment of a fire-break structure according to increasing accuracy simulation results.

【 授权许可】

Unknown