Construction and validation of nomogram to predict distant metastasis in osteosarcoma: a retrospective study

Journal of Orthopaedic Surgery and Research

Yanhua Wang¹  Lu Wang²  Pengfei Wu²  Shouliang Lu²  Cai Cheng²  Yong Li²  Guangfei Liu² 

[1]ECG Examination Department, Cangzhou Central Hospital

[2]NO.1 Orthopedics Department, Cangzhou Central Hospital

关键词: Osteosarcoma;    Metastasis;    Logistic regression;    Nomogram;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s13018-021-02376-8

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Abstract Background Osteosarcoma is most common malignant bone tumors. OS patients with metastasis have a poor prognosis. There are few tools to assess metastasis; we want to establish a nomogram to evaluate metastasis of osteosarcoma. Methods Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database of patients with osteosarcoma were retrieved for retrospective analysis. We identify risk factors through univariate logistic regression and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Based on the results of multivariate analysis, we established a nomogram to predict metastasis of patients with osteosarcoma and used the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves to test models. Results One thousand fifteen cases were obtained from the SEER database. In the univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, age, primary site, grade, T stage, and surgery are risk factors. The nomogram for metastasis was constructed based on these factors. The C-index of the training and validation cohort was 0.754 and 0.716. This means that the nomogram predictions of patients with metastasis are correct, and the calibration plots also show the good prediction performance of the nomogram. Conclusion We successfully develop the nomogram which can reliably predict metastasis in different patients with osteosarcoma and it only required basic information of patients. The nomogram that we developed can help clinicians better predict the metastasis with OS and determine postoperative treatment strategies.

【 授权许可】

Unknown