Modeling the Effect of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus in Australian Beef Herds

Frontiers in Veterinary Science

Yiheyis Maru¹  Marta Hernandez-Jover³  Jennifer Manyweathers³  Jake Fountain³  Tariq Halasa⁴  Carsten Kirkeby⁴  Victoria Brookes⁵ 

[1] Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Land and Water, Canberra, ACT, Australia;Graham Centre for Agricultural Innovation (An Alliance Between Charles Sturt University and NSW Department of Primary Industries), School of Agricultural, Environmental and Veterinary Sciences, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia;School of Agricultural, Environmental and Veterinary Sciences, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia;Section of Animal Welfare and Disease Control, Institute of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, Denmark;Sydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, Australia;

关键词: BVDV;    simulation;    model;    Australia;    beef;    production;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fvets.2021.795575

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is an economically important disease in Australian beef farming. The disease typically results in low-level production losses that can be difficult to detect for several years. Simulation modeling can be used to support the decision to control BVDV; however, current BVDV simulation models do not adequately reflect the extensive farming environment of Australian beef production. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a disease simulation model to explore the impact of BVDV on beef cattle production in south-east Australia. A dynamic, individual-based, stochastic, discrete-time simulation model was created to simulate within-herd transmission of BVDV in a seasonal, self-replacing beef herd. We used the model to simulate the effect of herd size and BVDV introduction time on disease transmission and assessed the short- and long-term impact of BVDV on production outputs that influence the economic performance of beef farms. We found that BVDV can become established in a herd after a single PI introduction in 60% of cases, most frequently associated with the breeding period. The initial impact of BVDV will be more severe in smaller herds, although self-elimination is more likely in small herds than in larger herds, in which there is a 23% chance that the virus can persist for >15 years following a single incursion in a herd with 800 breeders. The number and weight of steers sold was reduced in the presence of BVDV and the results demonstrated that repeat incursions exacerbate long-term production losses, even when annual losses appear marginal. This model reflects the short- and long-term production losses attributed to BVDV in beef herds in southeast Australia and provides a foundation from which the influence and economic utility of BVDV prevention in Australian beef herds can be assessed.

【 授权许可】

Unknown