Statistical Analysis of Tropical Cyclones in the Solomon Islands

Atmosphere

Kosuke Ito¹  Taiga Shibata¹  Edward Maru² 

[1] Department of Physics and Geosciences, Faculty of Science, University of the Ryukyus, 1 Senbaru, Nishihara-cho, Nakagami-gun, Okinawa 903-0213, Japan;Forecasting Section, Solomon Islands Meteorological Services, Honiala, Solomon Islands;

关键词: tropical cyclone;    Madden–Julian Oscillation;    El Niño Southern Oscillation;    South Western Pacific;    global warming;   

DOI  :  10.3390/atmos9060227

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

This study examines tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the Solomon Islands (SIs) using best track data from the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, Brisbane, and the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre, Nadi. Analysis of long-term trends showed that the frequency of TCs has decreased in this region, while the average TC intensity has increased. Datasets were classified according to the phase of Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the index of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), provided by Bureau of Meteorology. The MJO significantly influenced TC activity in the SIs, with TC genesis occurring most frequently in phases 6–8. In contrast, TC genesis occurred less frequently in phase 5. ENSO also influenced TC genesis; more TCs were generated in El Niño periods. The TC genesis locations during El Niño (La Niña) periods were significantly displaced to the north (south) over the SIs. TCs generated during El Niño conditions tended to be strong. This study also explores the modulation of TCs in terms of the seasonal climatic variability of large-scale environmental variables such as sea surface temperature (SST), low-level relative vorticity, vertical wind shear, and upper level divergence.

【 授权许可】

Unknown