Overcapacity Risk of China’s Coal Power Industry: A Comprehensive Assessment and Driving Factors

Sustainability

Delu Wang¹  Xun Xue¹  Yadong Wang¹ 

[1] School of Economics and Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China;

关键词: overcapacity;    risk assessment;    data-driven;    industry correlation;    coal power industry;   

DOI  :  10.3390/su13031426

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The comprehensive and accurate monitoring of coal power overcapacity is the key link and an important foundation for the prevention and control of overcapacity. The previous research fails to fully consider the impact of the industry correlation effect; making it difficult to reflect the state of overcapacity accurately. In this paper; we comprehensively consider the fundamentals; supply; demand; economic and environmental performance of the coal power industry and its upstream; downstream; competitive; and complementary industries to construct an index system for assessing coal power overcapacity risk. Besides; a new evaluation model based on a correlation-based feature selection-association rules-data envelopment analysis (CFS-ARs-DEA) integrated algorithm is proposed by using a data-driven model. The results show that from 2008 to 2017; the risk of coal power overcapacity in China presented a cyclical feature of “decline-rise-decline”, and the risk level has remained high in recent years. In addition to the impact of supply and demand; the environmental benefits and fundamentals of related industries also have a significant impact on coal power overcapacity. Therefore; it is necessary to monitor and govern coal power overcapacity from the overall perspective of the industrial network, and coordinate the advancement of environmental protection and overcapacity control.

【 授权许可】

Unknown