Turning points identification of growth business cycle in the Czech republic – an alternative approach

Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis

Jitka Poměnková¹ 

[1] Ústav financí, Mendelova zemědělská a lesnická univerzita v Brně, Zemědělská l, 613 00 Brno, Česká republika;

关键词: business cycle;    Gasser-Müller estimate;    trough;    peak;   

DOI  :  10.11118/actaun200957030123

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The purpose of the paper is to identify GDP growth cycle of the Czech Republic by means of turning points identification using alternative statistical method – non-parametric kernel estimate. Special type of estimate, convolution Gasser-Müller one, is used. An advantage of this approach is possibility to estimate derivations of unknown function, which is suitable especially in the case of turning points searching.For identification of growth business cycle type results of nonparametric estimate of regression function is used. Obtained residuals, growth component, are considered as growth cycle type and are ana­lo­gi­cal­ly identified. On the basis of nonparametric estimates of growth component derivations (1st and 2nd) turning points (trough and peak) are identified. At the end, comparison of nonparametric statistical approach with economic turning points identification approach, Canova type, is done.

【 授权许可】

Unknown