The Role of Temperature Variability on Seasonal Electricity Demand in the Southern US

Frontiers in Sustainable Cities

Dylan Cawthorne¹  Hadi Eshraghi²  Joseph F. DeCarolis²  Arumugam Sankarasubramanian²  Anderson Rodrigo de Queiroz³ 

[1] Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California at Davis, Davis, CA, United States;Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States;Department of Decision Sciences, School of Business, North Carolina Central University, Durham, NC, United States;

关键词: climate forecasts;    residential electricity demand;    climatology;    seasonal variability;    regression analysis;   

DOI  :  10.3389/frsc.2021.644789

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The reliable and affordable supply of energy through interconnected systems represent a critical infrastructure challenge. Seasonal and interannual variability in climate variables—primarily precipitation and temperature—can increase the vulnerability of such systems during climate extremes. The objective of this study is to understand and quantify the role of temperature variability on electricity consumption over representative areas of the Southern United States. We consider two states, Tennessee and Texas, which represent different climate regimes and have limited electricity trade with adjacent regions. Results from regression tests indicate that regional population growth explains most of the variability in electricity demand at decadal time scales, whereas temperature explains 44–67% of the electricity demand variability at seasonal time scales. Seasonal temperature forecasts from general circulation models are also used to develop season-ahead power demand forecasts. Results suggest that the use of climate forecasts can potentially help to project future residential electricity demand at the monthly time scale.Capsule Summary: Seasonal temperature forecasts from GCMs can potentially help in predicting season-ahead residential power demand forecasts for states in the Southern US.

【 授权许可】

Unknown