Modelling Strong Control Measures for Epidemic Propagation With Networks—A COVID-19 Case Study

IEEE Access

David Cavanagh¹  Michael Small¹ 

[1] Integrated Energy Pty Ltd., Como, WA, Australia;

关键词: Agent based model;    complex network;    infectious diseases;    propagation on networks;   

DOI  :  10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3001298

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

We show that precise knowledge of epidemic transmission parameters is not required to build an informative model of the spread of disease. We propose a detailed model of the topology of the contact network under various external control regimes and demonstrate that this is sufficient to capture the salient dynamical characteristics and to inform decisions. Contact between individuals in the community is characterised by a contact graph, the structure of that contact graph is selected to mimic community control measures. Our model of city-level transmission of an infectious agent (SEIR model) characterises spread via a (a) scale-free contact network (no control); (b) a random graph (elimination of mass gatherings); and (c) small world lattice (partial to full lockdown-“social” distancing). This model exhibits good qualitative agreement between simulation and data from the 2020 pandemic spread of a novel coronavirus. Estimates of the relevant rate parameters of the SEIR model are obtained and we demonstrate the robustness of our model predictions under uncertainty of those estimates. The social context and utility of this work is identified, contributing to a highly effective pandemic response in Western Australia.

【 授权许可】

Unknown