Comparison of associations between mortality and air pollution exposure estimated with a hybrid, a land-use regression and a dispersion model

Environment International

Zorana J. Andersen¹  Nicole Janssen²  Gerard Hoek³  Massimo Stafoggia⁴  Evangelia Samoli⁵  Marten Marra⁶  Wim Swart⁷  Bert Brunekreef⁸  Sophia Rodopoulou⁹  Joost Wesseling⁹  Danielle Vienneau⁹  Danny Houthuijs^1,10  Kees de Hoogh^1,11  Maciej Strak^1,12  Richard Atkinson^1,12  Jochem O. Klompmaker^1,12  Bente Oftedal^1,12  Jie Chen^1,13  Klea Katsouyanni^1,14  Mariska Bauwelinck^1,15 

[1] Corresponding author at: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Antonie van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9, 3721 MA Bilthoven, the Netherlands.;Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Utrecht University, Netherlands;Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden;MRC Centre for Environment and Health Environmental Research Group, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK;;NIHR HPRU Health Impact of Environmental Hazards &University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland;Department of Environmental Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway;Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Region Health Service / ASL Roma 1, Rome, Italy;Dept. of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece;Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Utrecht University, Netherlands;Interface Demography – Department of Sociology, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium;National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands;St George’s Hospital, University of London, London, UK;Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland;University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark;

关键词: PM2.5;    NO2;    Exposure assessment;    LUR model;    Dispersion model;    Mortality;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Introduction: To characterize air pollution exposure at a fine spatial scale, different exposure assessment methods have been applied. Comparison of associations with health from different exposure methods are scarce. The aim of this study was to evaluate associations of air pollution based on hybrid, land-use regression (LUR) and dispersion models with natural cause and cause-specific mortality. Methods: We followed a Dutch national cohort of approximately 10.5 million adults aged 29+ years from 2008 until 2012. We used Cox proportional hazard models with age as underlying time scale and adjusted for several potential individual and area-level socio-economic status confounders to evaluate associations of annual average residential NO2, PM2.5 and BC exposure estimates based on two stochastic models (Dutch LUR, European-wide hybrid) and deterministic Dutch dispersion models. Results: Spatial variability of PM2.5 and BC exposure was smaller for LUR compared to hybrid and dispersion models. NO2 exposure variability was similar for the three methods. Pearson correlations between hybrid, LUR and dispersion modeled NO2 and BC ranged from 0.72 to 0.83; correlations for PM2.5 were slightly lower (0.61–0.72). In general, all three models showed stronger associations of air pollutants with respiratory disease and lung cancer mortality than with natural cause and cardiovascular disease mortality. The strength of the associations differed between the three exposure models. Associations of air pollutants estimated by LUR were generally weaker compared to associations of air pollutants estimated by hybrid and dispersion models. For natural cause mortality, we found a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.030 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.019, 1.041) per 10 µg/m3 for hybrid modeled NO2, a HR of 1.003 (95% CI: 0.993, 1.013) per 10 µg/m3 for LUR modeled NO2 and a HR of 1.015 (95% CI: 1.005, 1.024) per 10 µg/m3 for dispersion modeled NO2. Conclusion: Air pollution was positively associated with natural cause and cause-specific mortality, but the strength of the associations differed between the three exposure models. Our study documents that the selected exposure model may contribute to heterogeneity in effect estimates of associations between air pollution and health.

【 授权许可】

Unknown