Effects of oil shocks on EMU exports: technological level differences

Review of Economic Perspectives

Hodula Martin¹  Vahalík Bohdan² 

[1] VŠB-Technical University of Ostrava, Economic Faculty, Department of Economics, Sokolská třída 33, 701 21 Ostrava, Czech Republic;VŠB-Technical University of Ostrava, Economic Faculty, Department of European Integration, Sokolská třída 33, 701 21 Ostrava, Czech Republic;

关键词: emu;    export;    technological structure;    tvp-var;   

DOI  :  10.1515/revecp-2017-0021

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

This article provides some new empirical perspectives on the relationship between oil-market fluctuations and technological structure of EMU export. We rely on a time-varying parameter VAR model to capture the reaction of different technological structures of EMU export to various oil-market innovations in the period 2002-2015. Our results can be summarized as follows: (1) increase in crude oil production is likely to reduce oil prices and therefore increases all EMU exports due to lower production and transportation costs; (2) increase in global demand is more likely to be transmitted to goods with higher added value; (3) high-tech exports decrease in the first months after the global demand shock as a result of a delayed investment decision process; (4) increasing oil prices yield only marginal effect on EMU export.

【 授权许可】

Unknown