Simulating Stakeholder-Based Land-Use Change Scenarios and Their Implication on Above-Ground Carbon and Environmental Management in Northern Thailand

Land

Georg Cadisch¹  Melvin Lippe¹  Thomas Hilger¹  Attachai Jintrawet²  Naruthep Wechpibal³  Sureeporn Sudchalee³ 

[1] Institute of Agricultural Sciences in the Tropics (Hans-Ruthenberg-Institute), Universität Hohenheim, 70593 Stuttgart, Germany;Multiple Cropping Centre (MCC), Chiang Mai University, 50100 Chiang Mai, Thailand;Uplands Programme (SFB 564), Chiang Mai Office, 50100 Chiang Mai, Thailand;

关键词: Northern Thailand;    land-use change;    above-ground carbon;    model soft-coupling;    stakeholder-based scenarios;   

DOI  :  10.3390/land6040085

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The objective of this study was to examine whether the coupling of a land-use change (LUC) model with a carbon-stock accounting approach and participatory procedures can be beneficial in a data-limited environment to derive implications for environmental management. Stakeholder-based LUC scenarios referring to different storylines of agricultural intensification and reforestation were simulated to explore their impact on above-ground carbon (AGC) for a period of twenty years (2009–2029). The watershed of Mae Sa Mai, Northern Thailand was used as a case study for this purpose. Coupled model simulations revealed that AGC stocks could be increased by up to 1.7 Gg C through expansion of forests or orchard areas. A loss of up to 0.4 Gg C would occur if vegetable production continue to expand at the expense of orchard and fallow areas. The coupled model approach was useful due to its moderate data demands, enabling the comparison of land-use types differing in AGC build-up rates and rotation times. The scenario analysis depicted clear differences in the occurrence of LUC hotspots, highlighting the importance of assessing the impact of potential future LUC pathways at the landscape level. The use of LUC scenarios based on local stakeholder scenarios offer a higher credibility for climate mitigation strategies but also underline the need to co-design policy frameworks that acknowledge the heterogeneity of stakeholder needs and environmental management frameworks.

【 授权许可】

Unknown