Clustering or Scattering? The Spatial Distribution of Cropland in a Metropolitan Region, 1960–2010

Sustainability

Maria Gras¹  Luca Salvati¹  Andrea Colantoni²  Ilaria Zambon²  EnricoMaria Mosconi³  Alessandra Stefanoni³ 

[1]Council for Agricultural Research and Economics (CREA), Forestry Research Centre, I-52100 Arezzo, Italy

[2]Department of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences (DAFNE), Tuscia University, Via San Camillo de Lellis, I-01100 Viterbo, Italy

[3]Department of Economics, Engineering, Society and Business Organization, Tuscia University, Via del Paradiso 47, I-01100 Viterbo, Italy

关键词: peri-urban agriculture;    urban expansion;    indicators;    multiple regression;    Mediterranean Europe;   

DOI  :  10.3390/su10072584

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

This article presents empirical results of a multivariate analysis run with the aim to identify (apparent and latent) socioeconomic transformations that shape the distribution pattern of cropland in a metropolitan region of southern Europe (Athens, Greece) over a sufficiently long time interval spanning from 1960 to 2010. The study area is representative of monocentric cities expanding in an unregulated fashion and experiencing sequential cycles of economic growth and recession. Percent share of cropland in total municipal area increased moderately over time. A non-linear relationship with the distance from downtown Athens was also observed, indicating that the highest rates of cropland were observed at a distance ranging between 20 and 30 km from the inner city. A multivariate regression was run by decade at each municipality of the study area using 11 predictors with the aim to identify the factors most associated with cropland decline along urban fringes. Distance from downtown Athens, soil and climate quality, population growth rate, and competing land use were the most relevant factors correlated with cropland expansion (or decline) in the study area. Competing land use was particularly important for cropland decline in a first urbanization phase (1960–1980), while population growth rate—and hence an increased human pressure—was positively associated with agricultural areas in a subsequent phase (1990–2010). In these regards, per capita urban land had a non-linear spatial behavior, being correlated negatively with cropland in 1960 and 1970 and positively in 2010, possibly indicating a moderate change from a monocentric model towards a more dispersed metropolitan configuration impacting distribution of agricultural areas. Empirical findings of this study suggest that effective strategies supporting peri-urban agriculture require a comprehensive knowledge of the local socioeconomic context and relevant biophysical conditions—specifically focusing on the dominant soil and climate attributes.

【 授权许可】

Unknown