A Risk-Informed Decision-Making Framework for Climate Change Adaptation through Robust Land Use and Irrigation Planning

Sustainability

Pavel S. Knopov¹  Vasyl M. Gorbachuk¹  Olena M. Borodina²  Yuri Ermoliev³  Petr Havlik³  Stefan Frank³  Tatiana Ermolieva³  Rastislav Skalsky³  Juraj Balkovic³  Taher Kahil³ 

[1] Institute of Cybernetics, 03187 Kiev, Ukraine;Institute of Economics and Forecasting, 01011 Kiev, Ukraine;International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria;

关键词: climate change;    systemic risks;    robust land use and irrigation;    robust anticipative and adaptive decisions;    two-stage STO;    safety constraints;   

DOI  :  10.3390/su14031430

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Uncertainty and variability are key challenges for climate change adaptation planning. In the face of uncertainty, decision-making can be addressed in two interdependent stages: make only partial ex ante anticipative actions to keep options open until new information is revealed, and adapt the first-stage decisions with respect to newly acquired information. This decision-making approach corresponds to the two-stage stochastic optimization (STO) incorporating both anticipative ex ante and adaptive ex post decisions within a single model. This paper develops a two-stage STO model for climate change adaptation through robust land use and irrigation planning under conditions of uncertain water supply. The model identifies the differences between decision-making in the cases of perfect information, full uncertainty, and two-stage STO from the perspective of learning about uncertainty. Two-stage anticipative and adaptive decision-making with safety constraints provides risk-informed decisions characterized by quantile-based Value-at-Risk and Conditional Value-at-Risk risk measures. The ratio between the ex ante and ex post costs and the shape of uncertainty determine the balance between the anticipative and adaptive decisions. Selected numerical results illustrate that the alteration of the ex ante agricultural production costs can affect crop production, management technologies, and natural resource utilization.

【 授权许可】

Unknown