Statistical Estimation of Effects of Implemented Government Policies on COVID-19 Situation in South Korea

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

Hye Won Chung¹  Hakyong Kim²  Yeonghyeon Ko³  Taehyun Kim³  Gyujin Heo⁴  Catherine Apio⁴  Doeun Lee⁴  Taewan Goo⁴  Taesung Park⁴  Kyulhee Han⁴  Jisun Lim⁵ 

[1] Department of Chemistry, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea;Department of Industrial Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea;Department of Statistics, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea;Interdisciplinary Program in Bioinformatics, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea;The Research Institute of Basic Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea;

关键词: SARS-COV-2;    COVID-19;    pandemic;    policies;    indices;    stringency index;   

DOI  :  10.3390/ijerph18042144

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Since the outbreak of novel SARS-COV-2, each country has implemented diverse policies to mitigate and suppress the spread of the virus. However, no systematic evaluation of these policies in their alleviation of the pandemic has been done. We investigate the impact of five indices derived from 12 policies in the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker dataset and the Korean government’s index, which is the social distancing level implemented by the Korean government in response to the changing pandemic situation. We employed segmented Poisson model for this analysis. In conclusion, health and the Korean government indices are most consistently effective (with negative coefficients), while the restriction and stringency indexes are mainly effective with lagging (1~10 days), as intuitively daily confirmed cases of a given day is affected by the policies implemented days before, which shows that a period of time is required before the impact of some policies can be observed. The health index demonstrates the importance of public information campaign, testing policy and contact tracing, while the government index shows the importance of social distancing guidelines in mitigating the spread of the virus. These results imply the important roles of these polices in mitigation of the spread of COVID-19 disease.

【 授权许可】

Unknown