Economic Effects of Micro- and Mini-Distributed Photovoltaic Generation for the Brazilian Distribution System

Energies

Vanderlei Affonso Martins¹  David Alves Castelo Branco¹  Michelle Carvalho Metanias Hallack² 

[1] Energy Planning Program (PPE/COPPE/UFRJ), Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro 21941-914, Brazil;Inter-American Development Bank, Energy Division, Washington, DC 20577, USA;

关键词: incentive regulation;    grid connection;    renewable energy;    distributed generation;    economic effects;    solar energy;   

DOI  :  10.3390/en15030737

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The micro- and mini-distributed generation (MMDG) has significantly increased after the normative resolution No. 482/2012 in Brazil; the installed capacity surpassed 7 GW in 2021. In the international context, a similar event was observed, whose process generated a cross-subsidy for other consumers, in addition to other problems that affect the economic balance of concessionaires. To mitigate this issue, the National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) is in the process of revising current rules. Thus, this study estimates the weight of this decision, through a methodology adapted from international assessment models, based on information from the Brazilian regulatory system. In order to achieve it, this paper presents metrics to define the potential market MMDG, based on the consumption patterns of consumers. Then, through time series analysis, the MMDG demand curve is estimated under two scenarios up to 2030. Finally, the economic impact on tariff adjustments and revisions, and their effect on the electric power concessionaires are evaluated. In the distribution companies of the Enel Group alone, economic losses are estimated at USD 1.2 billion by 2030; 53% of this will be passed on to consumers’ tariffs. Thus, based on international experiences, it can be concluded that the best model is the adequate grid remuneration.

【 授权许可】

Unknown