Trends and variability of droughts over the Indian monsoon region

Weather and Climate Extremes

Dev Niyogi¹  Vimal Mishra²  Shivam Tripathi³  Rao S. Govindaraju⁴  Ganeshchandra Mallya⁴ 

[1] Department of Agronomy and Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA;Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Gandhinagar, Gujarat 382424, India;Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur, UP 208016, India;School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA;

关键词: Drought index;    Hidden Markov model;    Standard precipitation index;    Gaussian mixture model;    Indian monsoon;    Uncertainty analysis;    Drought vulnerability;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.wace.2016.01.002

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Drought characteristics for the Indian monsoon region are analyzed using two different datasets and standard precipitation index (SPI), standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), Gaussian mixture model-based drought index (GMM-DI), and hidden Markov model-based drought index (HMM-DI) for the period 1901–2004. Drought trends and variability were analyzed for three epochs: 1901–1935, 1936–1971 and 1972–2004. Irrespective of the dataset and methodology used, the results indicate an increasing trend in drought severity and frequency during the recent decades (1972–2004). Droughts are becoming more regional and are showing a general shift to the agriculturally important coastal south-India, central Maharashtra, and Indo-Gangetic plains indicating higher food security and socioeconomic vulnerability in the region.

【 授权许可】

Unknown