Finland’s Dependence on Russian Energy—Mutually Beneficial Trade Relations or an Energy Security Threat?

Sustainability

Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen¹  Sakari Höysniemi¹  JaakkoJ. Jääskeläinen²  Sanna Syri² 

[1] Aleksanteri Institute, Faculty of Arts, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 24, FI-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland;Department of Mechanical Engineering, School of Engineering, Aalto University, P.O. Box 14100, FI-00076 Aalto, Finland;

关键词: energy security;    energy trade;    import dependence;    energy policy;    Russia;    Finland;   

DOI  :  10.3390/su10103445

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Studies on energy security in the context of relations between European Union (EU) and Russia tend to focus on cases, with an open conflict related to supply, such as “hard” energy weapons, or on only one fuel, often natural gas. However, there is a need to understand the long-term impacts that energy relations have politically, economically and physically, and their linkages between resilience, sustainability and security. We analyse the Finnish-Russian energy relations as a case study, as they are characterised by a non-conflictual relationship. To assess this complex relationship, we apply the interdependence framework to analyse both the energy systems and energy strategies of Finland and Russia, and the energy security issues related to the notable import dependence on one supplier. Moreover, we analyse the plausible development of the energy trade between the countries in three different energy policy scenarios until 2040. The findings of the article shed light on how the trends in energy markets, climate change mitigation and broader societal and political trends could influence Russia’s energy trade relations with countries, such as Finland. Our analysis shows that Finland’s dependence on primary energy imports does not pose an acute energy security threat in terms of sheer supply, and the dependence is unlikely to worsen in the future. However, due to the difficulty in anticipating societal, political, and economic trends, there are possible developments that could affect Finland.

【 授权许可】

Unknown