SYSTEM ANALYSIS OF FOREST FIRES IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Географическая среда и живые системы

关键词: forest fires;    remote sensing;    empirical distribution function;    global warming;    climate anomalies;    mathematical modeling;   

DOI  :  10.18384/2712-7621-2021-1-17-41

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Aim. The dynamics of forest fires in Russia and its regions and CO2 emissions from 2001 to 2019 are investigated to assess the relationship between global warming and forest fires. Methodology. The published materials and statistical sources are analyzed and the databases on fires are studied. The dynamics of forest fires in Russia and its regions is examined on the basis of remote sensing data from the Earth (MODIS data). The datasets are processed using QGIS software and Python libraries. CO2 emissions are analyzed using the Global Fire Emissions Database fire datasets using system analysis and mathematical modeling. Mathematical modeling of the global CO2 cycle is carried out using the global spatial model of A. M. Tarko under two scenarios - taking into account industrial emissions and forest fires and taking into account industrial emissions and deforestation. Results. It is found that for the period from 2001 to 2019, the maximum increase in the empirical distribution functions of the areas of burnt forests in all federal districts is shifted towards the minimum values, which implies an increase in the annual areas of forest fires in Russia and its constituent entities, with a general decrease in their number. The largest number of statistically significant correlation coefficients is observed in the Central Federal District. The direct dependence of the areas of fires on the average annual temperature and inverse dependence on the average annual amount of precipitation is demonstrated. It is revealed that the burnt dry matter and CO2 emissions from fires increased by 90% in 2019 compared to 2001. An increase by 167% is found if forest fires are taken into account. Mathematical modeling of the global CO2 cycle in the biosphere demonstrates a positive feedback between global warming and forest fires. Research implications. The conducted research is an actual basis for the further study of the dynamics of forest fires in Russia, as well as for the ecological functions of forest communities.

【 授权许可】

Unknown