Local early warning systems for drought – Could they add value to nationally disseminated seasonal climate forecasts?

Weather and Climate Extremes

Julie Wilk¹  Suzan Mokwatlo²  L. Phil Graham³  Lotta Andersson⁴  Jacob Wikner⁴  Brilliant Petja⁵ 

[1] Corresponding author.;Department of Electrical Engineering, Linköping University, SE-581 83, Linköping, Sweden;Department of Thematic Studies, Environmental Change Unit, Linköping University, SE-581 83, Linköping, Sweden;National Centre for Climate Adaptation, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SE-601 76, Norrköping, Sweden;Research Directorate, Limpopo Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, Limpopo Province, Private Bag 9487, Polokwane, 0700, South Africa;

关键词: Drought;    Seasonal climate forecasts;    Local EWS;    Indigenous climate indicators;    Resilience;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Limited application and use of forecast information restrict smallholder farmers’ ability to deal with drought in proactive ways. This paper explores the barriers that impede use and uptake of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) in two pilot communities in Limpopo Province. Current interpretation, translation and mediation of national SCF to the local context is weak. A local early warning system (EWS) was developed that incorporated hydrological modelled information based on national SCF, locally monitored rainfall and soil moisture by a wireless sensor network, and signs from indigenous climate indicators. We assessed to what degree this local EWS could improve interpretation of SCF and increase understanding and uptake by farmers. Local extension staff and champion farmers were found to play important knowledge brokering roles that could be strengthened to increase trust of SCF. The local EWS provided added value to national SCF by involving community members in local monitoring, enacting knowledge interplay with indigenous knowledge and simplifying and tailoring SCF and hydrological information to the local context. It also helped farmers mentally prepare for upcoming conditions even if many do not currently have the adaptive mindsets, economic resources or pre-conditions to positively respond to SCF information.

【 授权许可】

Unknown