Multi-Basin Modelling of Future Hydrological Fluxes in the Indian Subcontinent

Water

Devesh Sharma¹  K.C. Sharma¹  Thomas Bosshard²  Jonas Olsson²  Ilias G. Pechlivanidis² 

[1] Department of Environmental Science, Central University of Rajasthan, Kishangarh, Dist-Ajmer, Rajasthan 305817, India;Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping 60176, Sweden;

关键词: multi-basin modelling;    HYPE;    climate change impacts;    India;    CORDEX;    DBS;   

DOI  :  10.3390/w8050177

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The impact of climate change on the hydro-climatology of the Indian subcontinent is investigated by comparing statistics of current and projected future fluxes resulting from three RCP scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Climate projections from the CORDEX-South Asia framework have been bias-corrected using the Distribution-Based Scaling (DBS) method and used to force the HYPE hydrological model to generate projections of evapotranspiration, runoff, soil moisture deficit, snow depth, and applied irrigation water to soil. We also assess the changes in the annual cycles in three major rivers located in different hydro-climatic regions. Results show that conclusions can be influenced by uncertainty in the RCP scenarios. Future scenarios project a gradual increase in temperature (up to 7 °C on average), whilst changes (both increase and decrease) in the long-term average precipitation and evapotranspiration are more severe at the end of the century. The potential change (increase and decrease) in runoff could reach 100% depending on the region and time horizon. Analysis of annual cycles for three selected regions showed that changes in discharge and evapotranspiration due to climate change vary between seasons, whereas the magnitude of change is dependent on the region’s hydro-climatic gradient. Irrigation needs and the snow depth in the Himalayas are also affected.

【 授权许可】

Unknown