A Detectable Anthropogenic Shift Toward Intensified Summer Hot Drought Events Over Northeastern China

Earth and Space Science

Huijun Wang¹  Bo Sun¹  Huixin Li¹  Jianqi Sun²  Huopo Chen² 

[1] Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China;Nansen‐Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China;

关键词: anthropogenic activity;    summer hot drought events;    detection and attribution;    northeastern China;   

DOI  :  10.1029/2019EA000836

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Abstract This study investigates the influence of external forcings on the various summer hot drought events (SHDEs) over northeastern China (NEC). SHDEs are represented by the probability‐based index (PI), which considers precipitation and temperature anomalies. The results show that SHDEs over NEC increased from 1961 to 2005, and the experiments for historical forcing (ALL), increased greenhouse gases emission forcing (GHG), and anthropogenic forcing (ANT) can largely reproduce the spatial and temporal features of the trends of SHDEs over NEC. Based on the optimal fingerprinting method, the impact of increased anthropogenic activities can be detected at the 90% confidence level. In addition, the attributable changes of PI in response to GHG and ANT forcings resemble the observation, implying that the increasing trends of SHDEs over NEC are primarily attributed to the increased anthropogenic activity. Furthermore, the occurrence probability of SHDEs over NEC will be further increased under different Representative Concentration Pathways in the future. Additional strict control regulations on GHG emissions are thus suggested to mitigate its impact on regional climate changes.

【 授权许可】

Unknown